CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 20/02 - 06Z MON 21/02 2005
ISSUED: 20/02 00:02Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the SW and central Mediterranean regions and the Aegean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Not much of a change of the upper flow regime expected on Sunday ... with extensive upper trough covering major parts of Europe ... and a quasi-stationary upper long-wave ridge over the E Atlantic ... as well as several vort maxima pivoting around the periphery of the large-scale trough. This leaves the Mediterranean regions beneath a broad and fairly fast WLY mid/upper flow. Developing SFC low over the N-central Mediterranean regions is expected to further deepen during the period ... moving into the N Adriatic Sea by early Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

...SW and central Mediterranean ... Aegean Sea...
Plume of fairly dry polar air will spread across the NW Mediterranean through the Rhone Valley ... and though shallow convection may develop in this air mass ... TSTMS seem to be unlikely there. Thermodynamic setup over the rest of the Mediterranean should not change too much ... and weakly unstable ... mixed profiles should be in place again ... sufficient for scattered TSTMS.

Shear in the cloud-bearing layer is expected to be on the order of 25 m/s ... with quite meager low-level shear where convection is expected. Allover severe threat thus seems to be quite limited though an isolated TSTM event approaching severe levels cannot be discounted.

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